Pharmaceutical industry: Concerned about the new version of the base drug directory opportunities

The pharmaceutical manufacturing industry is expected to maintain stable growth in the fourth quarter. Since March, the industry’s overall profitability has been recovering month by month. The industry’s cumulative total profit growth rate has increased from 11.5% in February to 17.8% in July; the fourth quarter of medical and pharmaceutical manufacturing operations will continue to maintain a steady trend and rise. The profit growth rate is between 18% and 20%.

The administrative price cuts come to an end, and the new edition of the base medicine list will bring investment opportunities. With the settlement of the highest retail price of drugs such as anti-cancer drugs in September, the risk of administrative price cuts will be ruled out for some time to come. In the fourth quarter, the industry will usher in the release of the 2012 edition of the basic drug list, and the variety will be expanded from the original 307 to 700. Newly-listed varieties, especially those of exclusive varieties, will usher in investment opportunities.

The internal differentiation within the sector caused by high premiums will continue. Before the broader market did not clear its way out of the downtrend channel, the stable growth of the pharmaceutical sector will continue to attract market attention. From a valuation point of view, as of the end of September, the valuation premium of the pharmaceutical sector relative to the CSI 300 reached 218%, which is at a historical high; the high premium level of the sector is difficult to change in the short term, and high premium and performance differentiation will further catalyze the stocks within the sector. Trend differentiation.

Maintaining a "look" investment rating in the pharmaceutical bio-industry, with particular emphasis on the Chinese medicine sub-sector. It is advisable to pay attention to the leading enterprises that have exclusive varieties of Chinese medicine and strong pricing power, like Rentang and Tasly. Tasly's core product, Compound Danshen Dripping Pills, is expected to enter the FDA's Phase III clinical field, and it is expected that the short-term FDA certification will promote the domestic sales of the products and the huge market space after the long-term product US listing. The company's second-tier product reserves are abundant. After years of cultivation, it has entered into a sustained and heavy volume growth. The proportion of pharmaceutical industry in 2012 is expected to exceed 40%, driving the overall growth rate of the pharmaceutical industry to exceed 30%. New products Danshen polyphenolic acid injection, a new class of drugs recombinant human urine The original look of the kinase has become the company's new profit growth point. With the completion of the channel construction, the sales force is gradually stable, and the product homogeneity is high. During the company's period, the expense rate, especially the sales expense rate, is expected to further decline. According to our calculation, the sales expense rate will drop by one point and the net profit will increase by 10%.

In addition, investors may also be interested in individual stocks that are expected to enter the new base drug catalog, such as Tai An Tang and Ling Rui Pharmaceutical.